If you thought 2014 brought shocking surprises from overseas — such as the horrors of ISIS, the land grabs by Russia, or the cyber-attacks by North Korea — you’d better brace yourself for major new wars that could explode in 2015.
Investors have heard plenty about the conflicts raging in Eastern Europe and the Middle East; and those are bound to continue.
But most are ignoring — or underestimating — two others that are already raging and could also have a big impact on their investments …
Civil War #1. Pakistan!
Ever since 9/11, while the U.S. and its allies have lost countless lives and expended immeasurable treasure in Afghanistan and Iraq, a far larger and potentially more dangerous country in the region — Pakistan — has been steadily sinking into the abyss of failed statehood.
Just compare the three countries side by side …
First, Pakistan is one of the most populated countries in the world, with 185 million people — more than Russia or Japan.
In contrast, Iraq and Afghanistan have just 35 million and 31 million, respectively.
Second, Pakistan is the fourth largest nuclear power in the world — with an estimated 100 to 120 nuclear warheads. That’s ten times more than North Korea, and also more than those of India or Israel.
Pakistan is the fourth largest nuclear power in the world. |
In contrast, neither Afghanistan nor Iraq is a nuclear power and most probably won’t be in my lifetime — or even my grandchildren’s lifetime.
Third, ever since its first day as a sovereign nation in 1947, Pakistan has been at war — or on the brink of war — with the one country that’s now the only other nuclear power in South Asia: India.
In fact, Pakistan and India have fought three declared wars, one undeclared war, several major battles that have bordered on all-out war, plus countless lesser skirmishes.
Just this past week, in the disputed Kashmir province, Pakistani Rangers opened fire at several Indian Border Security Force posts along the international border, which prompted retaliation from the Indian troops, and in turn, a threatening advance by the Pakistani army toward the area.
Meanwhile, neither Afghanistan nor Iraq are fighting — or are likely to fight — wars with neighboring countries. They’re far too preoccupied with civil conflicts.
Fourth, civil war in Pakistan is ramping up on a massive scale.
The Tehrik-i-Taliban is an alliance of militant groups to unify groups fighting against the Pakistani military. |
Last month’s massacre of 132 schoolchildren in Peshawar by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan was horrific.
But it wasn’t their first. In 2013, they were linked to the killing of 124 Christians, also in Peshawar.
Three years earlier, their operatives massacred 86 minority-religion worshippers during Friday prayers at mosques in nearby Lahore.
And soon thereafter, it was an American citizen trained by this very same organization that attempted to bomb Times Square in New York.
The recent Peshawar school massacre was so shocking, however, it finally seems to have galvanized Pakistan’s people and government to fight back more forcefully.
But if recent history is any guide, there are only three possible outcomes from this new trend: Their will to fight will wane as the terrible memories fade. Or each side will retaliate even more forcefully until most of the nation plunges into a three-way civil war — not only the Taliban against civil society, but also Muslims against Christians and Sunnis against Shiites. Or both.
How does Pakistan’s civil strife compare to that of Iraq and Afghanistan? It’s the one aspect that the three countries have in common.
The key difference is this: In Iraq and Afghanistan, it’s already in an advanced stage, and their governments are fully engaged in coping as best they can. But in Pakistan, the civil war is just beginning to ramp up.
Worse, much of Pakistan’s civil strife has been virtually legalized! It’s based on strict laws against “blasphemy” used by Muslims to attack minorities with impunity. And it’s spreading across the nation, with most opponents to those laws routinely persecuted or assassinated.
Bottom line: In Iraq and Afghanistan, the troubles are a known quantity to global investors and bankers, who have already written off those countries long ago. In Pakistan, it is not. As Pakistan fails, global investors will pull out en masse, and those funds will seek safer havens, including the highest quality U.S. equities they can lay their hands on.
Civil War #2: Nigeria!
Africa, like South America and Australia, can rarely compete for the attention of North-of-the-Equator media, typically devoted to the so-called “more important” parts of the world.
Yet Africa is the home of 1.1 billion, exceeding the population of all of the Americas (North, Central and South) by 138 million … and surpassing the population of all European countries by 368 million.
That means all residents of the United States — PLUS all the people in Europe — are now outnumbered by those living in Africa.
In area, Africa is the second largest continent on the planet, twice as large as South America.
Moreover, it’s the fastest growing continent — demographically AND economically.
Nigeria produces more oil than Qatar, Algeria or even Norway and the U.K. |
So when the one country on the continent with the largest population and the most oil resources — Nigeria — suddenly sinks into deep trouble, you’d think Wall Street would pay more attention.
Not so. Unless oil supplies are threatened — or hundreds of schoolgirls are kidnapped, raped and sold off as slaves — very few investors ever talk about it.
Big mistake!
Because Nigeria produces more oil than Qatar, Algeria or even Norway and the U.K.
It has more proven oil reserves than Kazakhstan, China, Mexico or even the United States (excluding new shale oil discoveries).
Heck. When Greece goes into a tailspin, the news hits the headlines almost instantly. But Nigeria’s GDP is larger than Greece’s — and far larger than Ireland’s, Ukraine’s or Iraq’s.
The big problem: It’s moving rapidly on much the same turbulent path as Pakistan — toward the status of a failed state.
Consider its domestic energy, for example. Even though it’s a huge oil producer, its electric power generation per-capita is only a tiny fraction of what other counties in Africa have achieved. Even Libya, also a failed state, generates at least 30 times more!
Mostly thanks to oil, the country has had a cumulative trade surplus of $298 billion since 1970. But nearly all of that money has sunk into the black hole of waste, corruption, and lavish living by a small elite.
Nigeria’s central government has not been able to counter the insurgency. |
Meanwhile, Boko Haram, the Muslim terrorist group — now operating in the northeast, north-central and central states of the country — is growing rapidly. Since 2009, the group has abducted more than 500 women and children, killed over 5,000 civilians and forced the displacement of at least 650,000.
But the central government, despite a state of emergency declared three years ago, has been almost entirely ineffective in countering the insurgency — again because of official corruption, and, worse, a spate of war crimes by its own soldiers.
Nor has the government been able to address the tremendous discontent that has been endemic in nearly all regions, especially in the oil-rich Niger Delta — a conflict that dates back to the early 1990s between foreign oil corporations and the Delta’s disadvantaged minorities.
What happens now with Nigeria’s oil revenues suddenly cut almost in half? And what happens as the world’s powers, distracted by widening conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, devote even fewer resources to Africa?
The most likely scenario: A widening civil war, a coup d’état, major disruptions in oil production and, again, massive flights of global capital from Nigeria and from Africa as a whole.
How Do These New Civil Wars Affect Investors?
In the long term, any conflict is worrisome: If civil wars pour across national borders … if national wars engulf an entire region … and if regional wars become interlinked with the ever wider East-West divide … this entire conversation will change dramatically.
Global conflicts create wave after wave of anxious buying. |
But that has not happened yet and probably won’t for some time.
Instead, for the foreseeable future, these conflicts are ramping up locally, not globally. That means, the primary impact on U.S. investors is precisely the reverse of what you’d normally expect.
Instead of threatening the most stable and prosperous economies of the world, they drive more money TO those economies.
Instead of causing panic selling, they create wave after wave of anxious buying.
And instead of a signal to investors to cower in the sidelines, they can be used as opportunities for investors to seek out investments that are benefiting from the global flight to safety.
Those used to be mostly U.S. Treasury notes and bonds. But with Treasury yields so low and with the U.S. economy now picking up strength, most of the new flight capital is going into to U.S. equities, especially those with the best liquidity in the most solid corporations.
That’s a key reason why every major market dip has been followed by a new surge.
Will that pattern continue in 2015? It’s too soon to say with certainty. But until and unless a new major force emerges, we see no reason it will change.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 13 comments }
When will the world wake up to the obvious fact that we are in a war with these demon-possessed Moslems? “Religion of peace” – ha, gag me with a hajib.
And in these final days, all commerece and trade will be significantly disrupted. Civil Unrest will prevail as the World Markets rage towards collapse. The Dollar, Safe Haven, will also be a bubble. When it corrects, the implications to all will be huge. Beware – Be Safe..
Religious wars have been going on for thousands of years. Whether a regional war is to be blown up into a full scale conflict is hard to say right now. The US, at great cost has attempted to impose (peace) and change and many have trouble seeing the benefit. I will have left the planet before they resolve this.
How wrong western assessments about Pakistan often are can be gauged from this joint US National Intelligence Council and CIA report released in 2000 predicted: “by year 2015 Pakistan would be a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and complete Talibanisation†(The Times of India, 13th February, 2005).
Britain endured terrorism for 26 years. At one stage her entire cabinet was nearly blown up in a terrorist bomb attack. No one at the time thought her collapse was imminent. Why should a few uncouth mostly foreign hired terrorists now pose an existential threat to Pakistan?
How do you ignore what’s happening in mexico? Which is a failed state with corrupt beaurecrats, police and military propped up by the US. A state that actively attacks it’s peaceful citizens, on the US border, should be of greater concern than any you’ve mentioned. the violence and drug enterprising there is directly affecting the US every hour of every day.
The cia funds its black ops via the drug trade since the days of viet nam. Look up golden triangle.
Americans, have been truly gruberized with reality shows and will willingly go to “safe zones” aka fema camps.
10 per cent of the population needs to wake up, do not see that happening.
How is your google fu? Look up 400 billion black op fund. They may well take drug money, but it is not their primary source of funding.
Now is the time for Mr. Weiss to tell us how we can profit from the misery of these “failed” nations.
Our company does business in Nigeria and I have been there multiple times and visited there three times over the past six years. Abuja is developing rapidly with new highways and hotels, but the population is growing faster than even oil wealth can keep up with. Mix in the Muslim belief that everyone must behave by their rules (something that was not visibly present 10 and 15 years ago), and you have a the makings of a mess. The only way to ‘solve’ Nigeria’s problem is to have all Muslims move to the northern states and all Christians to the southern half. When it is call to prayer time in Abuja the Muslims virtually stop all traffic, and the Christians resent and hate it.
1. Ukraine was a cia regime change, to place a american sock puppet and u.s. military on russian border. Imperialism grows.
2. Crimea was always aligned with russia 7ntil nikita screwed up, now itnis aligned back historically with russia.
3. U.S. is dropping supplies and weapons in Syria to grow and sustain the terrorists.
4. THINK! for goodness sake. How convenient one of the french shooters dropped his pristine id? Really, no one can smell a eu/us sanctioned hit? To what end, to perpetuate the need for a growing global surveillance state and continued loss of liberty.
Finally, here is a better written analysis.
http://www.blacklistednews.com/Paris_Shooting_Suspects_Under_French_Radar_for_YEARS/40724/0/38/38/Y/M.html
It seems the majority of investment advisors are promoting long positions, maybe in a rather self-serving manner.
But God is still in control, and if someone wants to know what to expect will happen in 2015, two compelling books by Jonathan Cahn, The Harbinger and The Mystery of the Shemitah, are recommended.
If anyone wants to know the agenda read the classic Tragedy and Hope.
Skip the first 750 pages of acadenia history and then you will read the globalist agenda in the following 650 pages.
Yes kiddies it is about 1300 pages. America needs to mature and get away from a 20 second sound bite life.
Now that said, the boldness of the globalist is in print front and center right here.
http://www.blacklistednews.com/The_Economist_2015_Cover_is_Filled_With_Cryptic_Symbols_and_Dire_Predictions/40687/0/38/38/Y/M.html
For those with discernment maybe you can uncover more and share. I do not possess that skill.
Enjoy, this is a juicy glimpse. The luciferian cabal is now openly declaring the agenda and gloating that american and citizens ignorance all around will contribute to their success, well so they think!
God holds these vulgar groups in derision and will use them for His glory.
I believe you have mentioned some very interesting details , thanks for the post.
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