Suddenly and without warning, investors are about to feel the impact of a massive, all-pervasive force that most have been ignoring.
It’s unstoppable, inescapable, and sometimes inexplicable.
It has the potential to rip apart some investment portfolios, while sending others soaring.
It has long been denied by Washington. It’s still overlooked by much of Wall Street. And it’s controversial as all heck.
But you don’t have to get involved in the debate about what’s the cause or who’s to blame. Nor do you want to get bogged down in all the technical mumbo-jumbo that inevitably comes with it.
All you need to do is recognize that it’s happening … and that it’s doing so more rapidly than most people expected.
I’m talking about the inexorable rise in the earth’s temperature — global warming. My main point:
Even if global warming’s impact — on climate, agriculture, commodity prices and inflation — does not appear for many months or years … the impact from preparations for global warming — by governments, large corporations and world organizations — is beginning to be felt right now.
Specifically …
- Investment is surging in nuclear energy, ethanol and other non-fossil energy alternatives …
- Demand is likely to surge for technologies that can clean up traditional fossil-fuel industries, and …
- Dozens of mainstream, high-profile companies are jumping on board.
This is the undeniable reality of our time. Whether you or I like or dislike the players … agree or disagree with the rhetoric … accept or deny the forecasts … we can no longer downplay its importance.
We must understand it. We must incorporate its implications into our investment strategies. And we’d be crazy not to consider the incalculable profit opportunities that it offers.
Think about it …
Global warming could be far more powerful and pervasive than any other megatrend. It’s already beginning to prompt substantial capital outlays. And no matter what’s done today, this is one megatrend that’s unlikely to go away in our lifetime, our children’s lifetime, or even in our great grandchildren’s.
White House, Congress,
States, Supreme Court!
All Suddenly in Swing!
Still not convinced global warming is a here-and-now issue for investors? Then look at what’s happening …
Scientists on both sides of the debate have reached a consensus that the earth’s temperature is rising and human uses are a critical cause. The only major disagreement: What to do about it — try to prevent further warming and abrupt climate changes … or just adapt to it.
The Bush Administration no longer rules out the idea of mandatory caps on greenhouse gases, according to a recent speech by the U.S. Undersecretary of State.
And even in the past five years, while the U.S. government has been largely holding back, it has invested $29 billion in climate science and technology research.
Now, even if the government’s position on global warming stays the same, expect another $40 – $50 billion in spending over the next five years. And if the new Congress has its way, expect many times that amount. Already …
In Congress, Senators Boxer, Bingaman, and Lieberman — poised to head the Senate committees on environment, energy and homeland security — have just sent a letter to President Bush asking for his cooperation “to signal to the world that global warming legislation is on the way.â€
And that’s just their first warning shot. The real fireworks are about to begin next year. No, it’s not a fait accomplit. But there can be no question that the pressure is building. Fast.
12 states — California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington — have already set tough legislation, such as Greenhouse Gas Emissions Targets. And now …
The U.S. Supreme Court is being asked by these states, several cities and other organizations to decide if the federal government has the power to control greenhouse emissions … and whether or not it’s required by law to use that power.
Last week, the justices appeared split. And early next year, we’ll see a decision. But regardless of the outcome of this particular case, the die is cast. Global warming, long a sideshow in the political and financial arenas, has burst into the forefront.
Prime Minister Blair
Opens the Floodgates!
Six years ago, the Bush Administration recognized that the earth’s temperature was rising. It recognized that the U.S. is the world’s largest emitter of manmade greenhouse gases, accounting for almost 20 percent. And it admitted that at least some of the temperature rise could be due to human activity.
But from their perspective, that wasn’t enough to warrant massive, potentially expensive — and disruptive — changes.
Their reasoning: No one could say how much of the global warming was due to natural fluctuations. No one could pin down how much and how fast the earth’s climate would change in the future. And no one seemed to have a clue regarding how or when policy changes would make a difference.
Now, much of that uncertainty seems to be clearing.
Just last month, Britain’s Prime Minister Tony Blair ripped down the dams and opened the floodgates to more worldwide spending on global warming preparations.
The occasion: The release of a 600–page report on global warming by Her Majesty’s Treasury. Its conclusions:
- Business-as-usual emissions will take global temperatures way beyond human experience.
- Greenhouse gases could more than triple by 2100.
- As a result, the world’s GDP could decrease by as much as 20%.
- Therefore, it’s far cheaper to face the issue now with investments to mitigate — and adjust to — a warmer earth.
According to the report, there are only two ways to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases:
The first way will be to avoid
emitting them in the first place.
To make that possible, they predict that demand for renewable fuels will grow to more than $500 billion per year by 2050.
In the U.S., for example, just to meet existing government standards for renewable fuels, we’re going to need about one quarter of our corn production to produce ethanol. So imagine the skyrocketing demand for corn and other ethanol sources when tighter standards are imposed!
Result: Much higher prices for corn and related commodities.
And that assumes no further rise in energy costs due to factors that have nothing to do with global warming. Case in point: According to a Congressional Budget Office study earlier this year, China and other emerging markets will demand more energy and drive fuel prices higher, regardless of global warming costs.
The other way is to capture
emissions after they’re created.
Expect a raft of new innovative companies jumping into this field. Already, dozens of U.S. companies have taken steps to address global climate change.
They’ve set targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
They’ve implemented innovative energy solutions.
They’ve improved waste management
Or, they’ve participated in the trading of financial instruments based on emissions.
Here’s just a partial listing:
Don’t get me wrong: Their early participation in global warming-related tactics are not sufficient reason to rush out and buy their shares.
There are too many other factors that can make or break a stock. And in some of these industries, there are too many other economic dangers on the horizon.
But this goes to show how the momentum is building … how it’s spreading … and how investors can aim for big profits by being in the right place at the right time.
Our Recommendations
First, if you haven’t done so already, take a serious look at the uranium investments Sean has been recommending. Also don’t miss his report, 5 Big Winners Set to Soar as Wall Street Catches Uranium Fever.
The global warming scare is now so pervasive that even many environmentalists, formerly anti-nuke, have switched sides, favoring clean nuclear energy as the only major, currently-available energy source that won’t cook the planet.
Second, don’t miss the opportunities in ethanol. Some salient facts:
- Already, over 1 billion gallons are consumed in California, strictly due to the fact that its gas is required to contain at least 6% ethanol.
- There are 3 million flex-fuel autos in the U.S. which can run on any mixture. At the moment, few gas stations provide it. But that’s likely to change a lot more quickly than Wall Street now estimates.
- I see no technological or economic hurdle preventing U.S. and foreign auto makers from converting almost entirely to flex-fuel engines.
Auto manufacturers in Brazil are already there. Less than three years ago, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drove the first Brazilian flex-fuel car off the assembly line — with an engine capable of using pure alcohol, pure gasoline or some combination. Today, nearly all cars made in Brazil have that capability, and it’s only a matter of time before you see the same worldwide.
Bottom line: A further surge in ethanol demand.
Just in the past six years, production capacity of ethanol in the U.S. has more than doubled. And right now, 97 ethanol plants are in operation with at least another 30 under construction.
Which stocks will benefit? One company we’re looking at seriously is
Archer Daniels Midland.
The company is the world leader in the production of soy meal and oil, wheat for bakery products and cocoa for chocolate products. At the same time, it’s the largest producer of ethanol in the U.S.
Plus, its nationwide network of railcars, trucks, barges, and storage facilities means that it can deliver large amounts of ethanol — on an as-needed or just-in-time basis. Translation: Efficient, cost-effective ethanol production and distribution.
In my Safe Money Report, we’ll tell you when to buy and when sell, how much and how.
But no matter what you do, don’t lose sight of the dangers that global warming can also bring:
* More threats to the global supply of critical resources …
* More costs to mitigate — or adapt to — the changing environment …
* More worldwide inflation, and …
* Continuing danger to vulnerable investments.
So above all, keep safe. And stay alert.
Good luck and God Bless!
Martin
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About MONEY AND MARKETS
MONEY AND MARKETS (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, Michael Larson, Nilus Mattive, and Tony Sagami. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM. Nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical inasmuch as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include John Burke, Amber Dakar, Wendy Montes de Oca, Kristen Adams, Jennifer Moran, Red Morgan, and Julie Trudeau.
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