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Some pundits make their careers out of predicting the obvious. Others talk about the future in vague generalities.
Not my colleague Larry Edelson. What he has just achieved leaves those kinds of forecasts in the dust.
“My Models Predict Trump Will Win the White House”
— Larry Edelson, September 28, 2016
Two months ago, at a time when both Democrats and Republicans were certain that “Donald Trump couldn’t possibly win the presidency” … when leaders in nearly every country were preparing to welcome Hillary Clinton as “the new leader of the free world” … and when global investors were placing their bets on the “coming Hillary recession (or boom)” …
Larry had both the vision and the guts to defy them all. In a bold headline, he wrote that “Trump will win the White House.” And even as Trump’s prospects dipped dramatically after the presidential debates, he never retreated from that forecast. (Hard to believe? Then click here to see for yourself.)
Plus, there were also other key factors that alerted us to the strong possibility of a Trump victory. That’s why, last May (Will Trump Win or Lose?) …
- I told you Trump enjoyed tremendous upward momentum. And it was that same kind of momentum that sprung up on election day.
- I stressed that Trump naysayers had been dead wrong in the primaries and could be dead wrong again. They were.
- I demonstrated that Trump was virtually invulnerable to attacks or outside events. “Like a stock price that already reflects the bad news,” we wrote, “Trump’s numbers already reflect most of his political weaknesses. In contrast, Clinton’s event risk is high.” This also proved to be very true.
- And I reminded you that the “FBI investigation of Clinton’s emails hangs over her campaign like the Sword of Damocles.” Sure enough, that sword dropped just 11 days before Election Day.
But the big question is …
Now What?
For the answers, I’ve just called Larry, and he made four critical forecasts for the immediate and intermediate future. Here’s the transcript …
Larry Edelson: No single person, not even the president of the United States, is more powerful than the historical cycles. These are cycles that embody the sum total of all economic, political, social — and even physical — forces that are already in place.
It’s the objective, nonpartisan analysis of those cycles that helped me forecast Trump’s victory. And it’s that same kind of analysis that will help guide you in coping with the events I’m forecasting right now.
Martin Weiss: Please name them.
Larry: Forecast #1 is a bond market crisis, something I’ve been warning readers about consistently. (See “The Worst Sovereign Debt Crisis Ever,” Global Bond Market Insanity, and Roughly Every 80 Years, the Piper Always Gets Paid.”)
Martin: A crisis that’s been percolating for months.
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Larry: Right. But it’s only now that investors are finally waking up to smell the coffee, and Trump’s election was the trigger.
Martin: Everyone saw how, on election night, Dow futures plunged over 800 points. But then everyone also saw how, the next morning, they bounced all the way back — and beyond.
Larry: True, but what most average people didn’t see is the unfolding drama in the U.S. Treasury bond market. Like the Dow, bond prices plunged on election night. But unlike the Dow, they continued to do so in the trading sessions that ensued. Ditto for muni bonds, which, last Thursday, suffered their worst one-day decline in over five years.
Globally, it’s even worse. Since the election bond markets around the world have lost over $1 trillion in value, according to Bloomberg News.
Martin: I see how this could be a major sea change for bonds. But what’s the connection to Trump?
Larry: Maybe foreign central banks, such as the Bank of China, want to start unloading U.S. Treasuries before Trump starts renegotiating trade deals or threatening to slap on tariffs.
Maybe global investors are afraid that his tax cuts and public works projects will bloat the U.S. deficit or even bring on hyperinflation.
But does their specific rationale really matter? Like we said — and like Trump himself has said — the debt bubble was, and is, a huge disaster waiting to happen. It was just a matter of when.
Martin: Forecast #2?
Larry: Gold’s next big move.
Martin: I notice you gave readers a buy signal in mid-October (Gold’s Next Rally: Don’t Miss It) and you nailed down the forecast with the green line in this chart:
Then, you gave readers a second, confirming signal two weeks later. (Gold Rally Is Significant.) But what’s the connection to Trump?
Larry: Practically none. Gold’s rise was already under way before the election. And despite last week’s intermediate decline, it’s bound to continue after. Overall, my forecast for much higher gold prices is unchanged.
Martin: Your readers take your gold forecasts very seriously. They know you don’t have an ax to grind for gold. They also know you were probably the only one who correctly forecast gold’s earlier drop.
But suppose Trump starts doing the things he’s promised, such as boosting the economy and attacking the national debt. Won’t investors see progress in those areas as a negative for contra-assets like gold?
Larry: No. It’s hard to imagine any administration or any scenario in which there is “significant progress in attacking the national debt.” Even if there were, gold is going to benefit from a tsunami of flight capital, driven especially by the rising war cycle — civil wars, economic wars, cyber wars, and international wars.
Martin: I have to assume one of your forecasts is about oil. I say that because exactly one month ago, on October 14, you warned “the OPEC production cut is doomed” and published this forecast chart with the headline “kiss oil good-bye”:
Larry: Yes, let’s call that forecast #3. In the weeks that followed, crude oil prices promptly plunged 14%, and then, just ten days ago, I followed up with this chart showing massive U.S. stocks of crude oil:
This is just one of the factors capping oil rallies and driving them lower. In addition, the U.S. oil rig count recently hit an 8-month high at 432.
And never forget: All this puts the U.S. in the catbird seat — the swing producer that can derail any OPEC agreement. Trump loves this kind of economic leverage. So you can be sure he will use it, as needed, to help keep oil prices low.
Martin: One week ago, we warned that, soon after the election, we would see street demonstrations plus a growing minority that’s motivated to take up arms via rebel groups, criminal youth gangs and more. (See Starting tomorrow: America’s Day of Rage).
Sure enough, street demonstrations erupted almost immediately after the election. Where do you think that trend is headed?
Larry: That’s my fourth forecast. But let me restate the obvious: Trump’s election isn’t the cause. The cause is the social and political divide that, as I warned long ago, was widening before Trump jumped into politics. The only thing that’s changed — for the moment — is the question of which side of that divide is more actively expressing their anger.
No matter what, brace yourself for more civil unrest. But always remember that the unrest and turmoil overseas has been — and will continue to be — far worse. That’s important. Because it’s what’s driving massive amounts of flight capital to U.S. stocks and gold.
Martin: But not bonds.
Larry: No, not bonds, because they’re so grossly overpriced and so much a part of the great sovereign debt bubble.
Stay away from bonds. Stick with select stocks and gold-related investments. Right now, I’m continuing to buy gold miners, both junior and senior. They’ve risen sharply since I gave the signal to start buying. And after a temporary post-election dip, they’re going a lot higher.
Martin: Understood.
Larry: One last word, if I may.
Martin: Sure.
Larry: As you’ve seen, most of this is no longer just about forecasting the future. Most of it is already starting to happen. The sovereign debt crisis. Gold. Gold miners. Oil. Everything we discussed today, plus a lot more we didn’t talk about. That’s why I’ve created a special website for investors who want to cash in on this. And that’s why everyone must be aware that today’s the last day to do so.
Martin: Thanks, Larry. Keep up the good work!
Dr. Weiss founded Weiss Research in 1971 and has dedicated his entire career to helping millions of average investors find truly safe havens and investments. He is Chairman of the Weiss Group, which includes Weiss Research and Weiss Ratings, the nation’s leading independent rating agency accepting no fees from rated companies. His last three books have all been New York Times Bestsellers and his most recent title is The Ultimate Money Guide for Bubbles, Busts, Recession and Depression.
{ 34 comments }
Thanks
Do you think Dow goes up from here or corrects first ?
Do you think the Australia AsX goes up or down from her to end dec ?
There is no sign at all that the Dow will crash in the near term. After the big boys have got their bonuses be prepared for a short sharp shock in early January – say 17,330 – and then game on to 21,000. Crash around mid 2017 ? Anyone care to make a bet with me on that ? Its just a game and we need to work out how the major players are thinking. We have to follow them. It can never be any other way.
Oliver
My thoughts are this:
Lower Taxes equals Higher Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Higher Taxes equals Lower Inflation and Lower Interest Rates
Full Employment equals 5% Unemployment
Unemployment is caused by lack of skills and lack of Education plus lack of desire to work and disability
What is your take on this and is Centratism the Answer?
I called a Trump win also when he entered the race. Tell me what sectors are going to get hammered and which are going to benefit from his win.
Many people believe gold could carry on selling lower, all large and small caps in gold m silver have sold off 20-30% in past two weeks. I Wud wait till fed jumps rates in Dec before buying gold stocks like Abx or SLW
I love bear markets. Lots of money to be made buying PUTs and inverse ETFs.
I think Larry’s cycle work is most amazing and his understanding of anthropology and history as also regarding the markets and commodities stands by itself. As a investor in Super Cycle Trader, please look at the performance rating in trying to trade with leverage these moves Larry predicts. For now and last 2 years it was a disaster, I know I was a loser. The markets just did not respond in the way he anticipated. It is my hope that investors who use the service can make up for all the losses in his predicted leg up in commodities, stock market and other real things.
so if I own gold eagles, how do sale them, to who ? and how can I depend on shipments,and what kind of currency will be any good, and would it have to be a phisical presence? thank you.
Larry, you recently wrote that the Gold rally was in good shape as long as Silver held $17.11; today it has fallen below that level, I have acted and closed our my Gold positions for now, is this the correct action, I had expected a Flash Alert!
Larry did give a flash alert.
Larry’s macro forcasts have been virtually spot on. However, the timing of stock and inverse ETF picks in his Supercycle Trader trading service has been very poor for 2016.
Larry, the gold price is down down , you told us its on the way up and load up the truck .
Harry Dent says Gold will drop significantly in the future . . . “He too” is an accurate forecaster . . .?
Gold seems to be collapsing against the strong dollar,rather than moving North .So far it has not been helped by the outcome of the Election. At least most of us have been cautious in not backing up the truck and loading up on gold and silver shares and losing money in doing so.Thank you ,Larry, I await further clear and preferably unequivocal guidance .
On Nov. 7, Larry released a bulletin saying if we broke $1243 we would see a cycle inversion and it would send gold lower than the Dec. 2015 low of $1,045. Now he is saying we are going up. Which is it?
Model forecasts are updated just like weather forecasts. They are dynamic models ever changing and only can predict using past data to project the most likely outcomes moving forward. Larry provides honest updates by calling it like he sees it. He doesn’t try to hide the truth if it changes. If his models change he tells you which is good so you have the most up to date forecasts. This does not make him wrong. It makes him honest. He’s never claimed to be absolute in any call. Anyone that tells you that you better run away. The fact is gold has dropped but Larry said that there was that possibilty. He even predicted that gold could break two more support levels and head below 1200 an ounce. This was a risk his followers had to accept when deciding to back up the truck. If he did not give the buy signal and 1250 was the bottom and everyone missed the rally up they’d be upset. It’s likely that gold will go below 1200 an ounce now since momentum is downward and the expectation is the FED will raise rates in December. Unless any good news for gold comes out before then gold may continue to sell off. Overall I believe the macro view in gold is it will go up as Larry says in the longer term of 2-3 years after a possible fall back further this year. The imploding bond markets will drive more money into gold and as stock prices continue to bloat more investors will pull out of stocks and into safer havens for fear of the stock bubble bursting.
I like what you do keep it up
“But does their specific rationale really matter? Like we said — and like Trump himself has said — the debt bubble was, and is, a huge disaster waiting to happen. It was just a matter of when.”
Bonds started their decline in 2008 with Wave 1…and then rebounded for several years in Wave 2. In July 2014, they started another decline in Wave 3. This recent action we are apparently getting near the steep part of Wave 3….and it will be bad, very bad. Same for stocks. None of this stuff is caused by a president. Now a president CAN exacerbate the situation (witness the run-up of our debt to $20 Trillion…doubling in 7.5 years). But Trump is going to step into a whirlwind…no two ways about it. Will he have caused it? No…but it will not matter….he will be blamed.
Larry,
If gold is going higher, why does it continue to fall?
When will it turn higher?
Gold is falling because investors have decided Trump will be good for stocks. In part because his corporate tax cuts he proposed stand a good chance of passing and will result in bigger earning reports. Investors who have sat out prior to the election have jumped back into stocks and not interested in gold for now. Trumps tax plan is horrible for bonds so in the near term there will be more flight to stocks but as stock prices become to risky as the bubble gets bigger investors will turn to gold since it will be the safest haven at that point. I think the threat of a rate hike in December will hold gold prices below 1250 until then and we could see sub 1200s soon. If the FED back tracks and does not do a rate hike you can expect a break out above 1250 again.
good analysis, como. stocks go up, gold will go down.
Have you viewed the gold and silver market this week ?
what about copper? don’t forget doctor copper. it’s in a coil. keep an eye on it. it may soon reveal the real direction of the economy.
Hi Martin,
I came in with Larry about 8 months ago, but didn’t think much of it and didn’t actually start seriously considering Larry’s investment projections until about 3 months ago. I’ve invested with the Sovereign Group and Agora since June. Most of what they have advised (except Brexit) has been horrible recommendations, too much of a time lag for investing. I came out of gold in early September and came back in with Larry’s recommendation, including selling short for oil and gold stocks/miners, doing quite well. I’m waiting to start back with long positions in gold and miners, as soon as Larry says – “GO!” I’ve recovered all my losses, due to the poor recommendations from Agora and Rickard’s recommendations. If I would have done the exact opposite of what Jim Rickard’s recommended, I would be about 50K richer right now! Ugh! But I’ve almost recovered all those losses with Larry’s recommendations…so, that’s a good thing! I traded on Larry’s recommendation, that Trump would win and it looked pretty good (still researched Investment Business Daily’s polls), with the markets tanking over 800 Dow. I had to jump out of my rear end the next morning, exiting those trades and reversing course. I did that pretty well and recovered nicely since. Try doing that with your financial advisor! To anyone reading these words of encouragement, I would definitely recommend Larry’s and Martin’s service. They’re the best out there, that I could find and I’ve looked around…a lot! Still…you should also do your due diligence and add to your portfolio as YOU SEE FIT! No one is going to be correct 100% correct, so study, read, and become an expert at trading. Most people don’t have the time, so they spend thousand’s of dollars for a financial advisor, who will bleed you dry. You can get rid of them (like Merrill Lynch) and invest in index funds/ETF’s. Why spend so much money, when you can invest better yourself! Try getting a hold of your advisor, when they’re on their 15 vacation for the year! If you need to get out of a trade quickly or invest quickly, it only takes you minutes or seconds. Your advisor has the invest and hold forever theory, which is BS – it’s old hat in this environment!
Thanks for your service!
I agree with the Gold prediction. I currently hold 14,000 shares of PVG a Canadian gold mine set to go into production the second half of 2017. I estimate the dividends of thiry Plus percent will begin 2018. The shares are A bargain right now. Best of luck Larry. Thanks for your insight.
i’m still a gold bear, but i won’t make any decisions on gold until i see how it reacts to a december rate hike, which i think will push gold lower.
My only savings is in the form of 3) 20$ gold coins & I hope not to have an emergency forcing me to cash them in until gold goes up to at least what I paid for them: $1600/ea
Thank you for any favorable forecast.
Larry is right…. the huge elephant HERD in the room is the intense, vehement social/political divide in this country which continues to increase in volume and polarity as the ultimate crescendo is reached…. All of the secular indications that support that scenario are accurate, and should be taken seriously…. but the underlying certainty of it is spiritually declared in the Scriptures, specifically in Matthew 12:25, where Jesus Himself states: “EVERY kingdom divided against itself SHALL PERISH” (My emphases)… He does not say that “some” will perish; He does not say that kingdoms “might” perish; nor does He say that such kingdoms shall experience “discomfort.” History is clear that every great civilization has first collapsed from within… only then to be destroyed by outside forces. All of this is confirmed by Generational Science, which outlines the Four Turnings… the last, which we are clearly experiencing, is the point at which catastrophic events occur as a result of the sharp, irreconcilable differences generated during the Second and Third Turnings. Time to buckle up and recognize that our need for God and His intervention in our individual lives is desperate and absolute. It is time to make “In God We Trust” our daily, individual way of life and not just some irrelevant motto. Apart from Him, we are lost… helpless and hopeless as regards the coming tsunami.
One central bank sold 10 billion paper contracts, gamble is the word of gold swaps or another word naked, on Friday, on your day off?
In all honesty Trump dis not win the election as he lost the popular vote. I made the prediction that it was going to be a close election. Respectfully, mine was the right prediction, as the popular and electoral votes were different and the very small percentages in votes in the key states were also unpredictable.
its estimated up to 3 million illegal immigrants voted in this election persuaded by democrats that they had a right to vote
I’m not sure I’d be bragging that I got something right when there were only 2 possible outcomes.
For what it is worth, I believe that this past election should not have even been close. When Senator Sessions becomes AG one his first priorities should be to go after the massive fraud taking place in the various states. If it isn’t stopped now this may be the last election that comes out according to the will of the Republic.
Dennis, I think that has already been disproved. Fake news sites as well as general click bait sites are doing a real disservice. I think if you do your research (real research), you’ll find that there is very little fraud involved.