There is simply no way to sugarcoat things. This jobs report was a disaster through and through.
Some details are below. But also look at Long Bond Futures.
We are up two full points in price, while yields are down 7 basis points to the critical 2.5% area. Could we be headed to all-time highs for Treasuries, and all-time lows for yields? Will the stock market really just whistle past the graveyard if that happens?
I don’t have the answers. But the chart shows how we’ve been consolidating our initial January-February gains … how we took out a minor downtrend in May, retested it a few weeks later (and held) … and how we are now challenging the upper end of the multi-month range. If we take that out, it would be a YUUUGE breakout in my opinion.
* Our economy added only 38,000 jobs last month. That wasn’t even in the ballpark when compared to estimates for a rise of 160,000. It was also the single-worst number since September 2010.
* Was May an outlier? Nope. I say that because the Labor Department slashed April’s previously reported gain to 123,000 from 160,000 … and March’s number to 186,000 from 208,000. That confirms that 2016 is showing a marked slowdown in job growth from late -2015 and 2014.
* Job losses weren’t concentrated in any one sector, either. Manufacturing lost another 18,000 … mining lost 10,000 … construction lost 15,000 … and temporary help lost 21,000. The latter figure is particularly troublesome, because as the Wall Street Journal noted recently, a decline in temp hiring preceded the last two major recessions. Is that what we’re seeing yet again?
* Yes, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.7% from 5%. But that’s because the American workforce plunged by 458,000, while the labor force participation rate dropped another 0.2 percentage points to 62.6%. Those factors artificially depress the unemployment rate because of the way the math works.
Moreover, the so-called diffusion index that measures how many industry groups are hiring or firing fell to its lowest level in more than six years. Average hourly earnings also rose a lackluster 0.2%, compared with 0.4% in April, while average weekly hours were unchanged at 34.4.
I don’t care how Wall Street apologists try to spin this report. It was bad, and I don’t think we’ve seen the worst of it.
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excellent report, mike. in fact, this shouldn’t be a missive, it should a regular column. in addition to your excellent analysis above, industrial production and pmi are still down too. how can an economy go anywhere with ip in decline? you nailed this call a while back before it ever happened. good call.