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With so much fear AND profit on the near horizon, we’re receiving a slew of new questions from readers that are breaking all records in number and quality. So our founder, Martin Weiss, and Senior Editor Sean Brodick have stepped up to answer each and every one in a special Q&A marathon session next week.
To submit your questions via the question submission form, click here. It can be on ANY topic!
To register for the online Q&A session, go to this page.
Important: You do have to register so that we can make sure we have the bandwidth and to get your instructions for attending.
Meanwhile, I continue to watch interest rates like a hawk … especially the 10-year U.S. Treasury.
That’s because the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate provides baseline pricing for all investments. Not just bonds, as it traditionally has. But also stocks, real estate and commodities.
This is important to recognize. Especially now, with such extreme central bank intervention, experimental monetary policies and massive sovereign debt all over the globe.
Keeping a close watch on the 10-year helped me to be spot-on earlier this year with my prediction that interest rates were headed down, not up.
Plus, I stuck to my guns even though everyone else — including the mainstream media — argued that interest rates were going higher. Just for the record, the rate on the 10-year was 2.45% on Jan. 1. Compare that with the current rate of about 2.23%.
As the rate fell, stocks exploded higher. The benchmark S&P 500 Index gained about 12% for the year so far. And, just as I said they would, growth stocks performed even better.
Just look at the iShares Morningstar Large-Cap Growth ETF (JKE). It’s up almost double the broader market average. Year-to-date, JKE has returned close to 20%.
That’s because we live in a low-interest-rate world where our global economy struggles under a massive amount of debt. Stocks continue to offer the best deal around for return potential. So, there’s almost no price that’s too high to pay for high-quality, sustainable growth.
That’s why, as we embark on the final calendar quarter, we’re going to peer into the interest-rate crystal ball to see just how sustainable that growth is.
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Martin Weiss and Sean Brodrick: The ONLY way to attend this historic Q&A about the most dire forecast in Weiss Research’s 46-year history is to register. And registration is closing soon! Simply click the link below, and we’ll make sure you’re on hand — LIVE — when Martin and Sean answer your questions about exactly how you can survive the Great Convergence happening right now with your wealth and retirement intact … But also the SPECIFIC investments you can use today to build four great fortunes between now and 2022. |
A picture is worth a thousand words, says an ancient proverb. So, here are two of them that can tell you all you need to know about where stocks are heading into year-end.
This first chart shows the path of real yields for the U.S., the UK, and Germany. It confirms that the average is near record lows.
In fact, real yields in Germany and in the UK are negative! Yes, negative, because Europe’s extraordinary central bank policies discourage banks from hoarding cash.
Negative interest rates have provoked normally quiet investment giant Seth Klarman, founder of Baupost Group, the world’s 11th-largest hedge fund, to say:
“Currently, there’s about $13.4 trillion of debt worldwide (largely sovereign) traded at negative interest rates, a mystifying and unprecedented circumstance in which bondholders willingly subjugate themselves to pay interest to issuers for the privilege of tying up their capital for a significant interval while still bearing the risk of default.”
This next chart summarizes the consensus forecasts — of some of the world’s leading economists — for central-bank discount rates around the world. Specifically, the Fed, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.
As you can see, most economists believe that there are no rate hikes on the horizon for the rest of 2017.
So, these graphs show that interest rates should stay low. And, their evidence is backed up by other key stats that I watch.
So, I agree with American Nobel economics laureate, Yale professor and well-respected market expert Robert Shiller. He recently said to stay in the stock market because “it could go up 50% from here. That’s what it did around 2000, after it reached this level, it went up another 50%.”
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And if you’ve got some capital you want to put to work, it’s still a great time to invest for growth with an ETF like JKE. As for individual stocks, you may still want to consider:
* Wal-Mart (WMT). When it comes to retail, everyone else is all about Amazon (AMZN). But in my Aug. 25 column, I explained why nobody should write-off the original big-box store.
* Apple Inc. (AAPL). For some reason, Wall Street loves to sing the blues about Apple, especially when new iPhones come out. In my columns on Sept. 15 and Sept. 22, I explained why the pundits are out of tune with reality.
Apple is an active recommendation in my Safe Money Report newsletter, which is jam-packed with even more carefully selected growth opportunities. These recommendations are backed up by a perfect blend of market hedges. Together, the strategies can propel your portfolio forward while protecting the downside in these uniquely unusual times.
Right now, I’m putting the finishing touches on our October issue. To make sure you’re on the list to receive it, click this link and follow the instructions at the end.
Best wishes,
Bill Hall
Bill Hall is the editor of the Safe Money Report. He is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA), Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Besides his editorial duties with Weiss Research, Bill is the managing director of Plimsoll Mark Capital, a firm that provides financial, tax and investment advice to wealthy families all over the world.
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The figures for the solow state residual look good, so do the figures for the golden steady state level of income. We are headed for a boom, in this prosperity, recession, depression and improvements cycle that we are in. GDP at factor cost, and GDP at market prices look good too, the debt to GDP ratio looks good too, its falling for all the major western economies and G8 countries. This boom is gonna be even bigger than the last boom. We are in a phase of boom, recession, depression, recovery and growth, a time of unpredcented consumer consumption along with had big amounts of personal disposable income being available to consumers. The fisher effect which measures the nominal interest rates effect on the real rate of inflation, looks like we are headed for a period of deflation, where prices fall and incomes rise. Unless you lived in a centrally planned economy where there are no booms and busts, all western economies experience booms every ten years lasting for 2 to 3 years. Let the boom begin.