In my Shocking Forecasts for 2017-2022, I describe a great Supercycle — the millennial convergence of five major long-term cycles.
I forecast a rolling series of government debt crises on the horizon.
I lay out a strategy for making a fortune from each.
And I tell you precisely when the tides of history will begin to turn, just a few weeks from today.
This monumental shift was predicted long ago by the cycles research left to us by Larry Edelson, who passed away in March. But it’s only now, as we come closer to D-Day (“D” = debt), that our telescope can focus more clearly on how the shift will hit the fan.
Supercycle expert Sean Brodrick sees three D-Day events, all manifestations of the Supercycle, all set to strike this coming October. So this week, I’ve invited him to lay out his vision for you …
D-Day Event #1
Day of Decision in Japan
Weiss Research’s Supercycle expert, Sean Brodrick |
Thanks, Martin.
Let me start with Japan, the country with the biggest and most worrisome pile-up of government debts in the world.
According to the IMF, its debts are 238% of GDP. That’s more than DOUBLE the debt burden of the United States government.
But if you think that’s frightening, consider what the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists had to say about Japan just last week.
“Kim Jong-un’s unbridled military aspirations, and Pyongyang’s desires to become a recognized nuclear power, risk provoking a spiraling arms race in Northeast Asia. Together, they represent potentially the biggest strategic and diplomatic challenge to … the Trump administration.
“But while the pressures are intense for the United States, they are arguably even worse for Japan. The North’s unexpectedly rapid progress in its nuclear ambitions in the last year is raising fundamental questions about the durability of some of Japan’s distinctive, established political and strategic norms of behavior. …
“Will the looming threat of an unprovoked North Korean nuclear attack force Japan to break with years of post-war anti-nuclear sentiment and develop its own nuclear weapons capabilities in an effort to acquire its own independent nuclear deterrent?”
The answer to that scary question is still pending. But we already know three things:
Japan will soon install the land-based version of this missile, just the first of major new defense expenditures and major new debts. |
- Japan is going to install land-based Aegis missile defense systems to ward against North Korea’s threats.
- More big defense spending is bound to follow.
- And to pay the bigger bills, Japan will heap another load of debts onto its already-gigantic debt pile, all starting in October.
D-Day Event #2
Looming Debt Ceiling Debate
In the past, most investors didn’t care much about the debt ceiling. But this time, says Bloomberg, they’re starting to freak out.
Fitch Ratings warns that the looming debt ceiling crisis is so frightening, its triple-A rating for the U.S. government could be in jeopardy. Moody’s and S&P agree.
Heck, even investors holding Treasury bills, supposedly the safest security in the world, are nervous. So they’re driving T-bill prices sharply lower and their yields sharply higher.
The official debt ceiling D-Day is at the end of September. But by deploying some delay tactics, the U.S. Treasury could postpone the final day of reckoning until late October.
Unless Congress can muster the votes by that time to raise the debt ceiling AND get the president’s signature, the U.S. government will shut down. A debt default is also a threat that lurks in the deep background.
This was the sad truth before Mr. Trump weighed in. Now, it’s even sadder:
- The president has vowed he’ll veto the debt ceiling bill unless Congress includes funding for the border wall with Mexico.
- Most of Congress has vowed it won’t finance the wall come hell or high water. Thus …
- Both sides have now drawn such a solid line in the sand, the chances of a government shutdown due to lack of funding are higher than they’ve ever been in history.
Will it actually happen? Politics in Washington today is too darn nutty to answer that question with certainty. And as Martin stresses in Shocking Forecasts for 2017-2022, the bigger debt crisis is looming in Japan and Europe.
They’re the ones who will be the first to get smacked by unpayable debts coming due. And it’s their debt crises that will continue to drive massive amounts of flight capital to the United States.
But just the big brouhaha about our debt ceiling has consequences. And it brings home what I’ve always said about debt: The more debt a country has, the weaker it will ultimately be. And the weaker these indebted countries are, the more difficult it becomes to keep a lid on very EXPENSIVE global conflicts that have to be financed with still MORE debt.
Our friend Bill Bonner, author of the international bestseller Empire of Debt, says all this means we’re just going to see more war and more debt.
There’s no doubt that our foreign allies and adversaries get the message loud and clear. “If Washington can’t even balance its own checkbook,” they reason, “how dare they tell us how to manage our finances or fight our battles! We can do whatever we damn please, and they’re losing their power to stop us.”
Meanwhile, what never ceases to amaze me is that none of a government’s so-called “solutions” ever make the debt go down. They always make the debt grow bigger.
D-Day Event #3
Fed Fire and Fury?
While the final debt ceiling debacle hangs over Washington like the Sword of Damocles, another thing will happen: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet to decide on its next interest rate hike.
Already, the Fed has raised interest rates three times. And already, the pressure is building to a crescendo to do something no one on Wall Street dares think about: Shrink the Fed’s gargantuan $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
Where did that $4.5 trillion come from? About four-fifths came mostly from rescuing and buying up bad debts that got dumped out of the great debt crisis of 2008.
See how all these debt messes are coming to a head?
Convergence
THIS is what Larry Edelson meant by CONVERGENCE — when cycles and powerful forces of history come together in one time and place.
This is what’s behind Martin’s Shocking Forecasts for 2017-2022.
This is what’s driving the megatrends I’ve been harping about.
You see, the looming debt monster can only be aggravated by global conflicts. And the global conflicts are mostly a big grab for natural resources.
This is another strong force driving key resources higher. As I told you last week, palladium, copper, aluminum and other industrial metals are hitting multiyear highs. It’s the secret rally no one has told you about. Gold and silver? Also looking very good. Oil, meanwhile, shows surprising strength.
And it’s just one way to profit from the coming D-Day events. If you want the full-blown list of profit opportunities, go here.
All the best,
Sean
{ 5 comments }
It should be pointed out that the vast majority this debt has accumulated since the Reagan Republican Revolution of 1982 and the Republican Administration of Cheney/bush and Republican Majority Congress who brought the Stock Market Crash and Depression (just like 1929) of 2007, again, after years of Republican domination….
Mr. Trump says he will veto any attempt by Congress to deal with the debt ceiling without funding his Mexican Iron Curtain. That could set the stage for a Republican Congress to impeach Trump for malfeasance in office. President Spence would be one of their own, after all, not the wild card which Trump has become. Look for it.
We consume more than we produce. We make up for this with debt both public and private. We live beyond our means and NO ONE wants to take a hit and give up their pork. The Fed’s balance sheet was enlarged to bail our the crooks who knowingly sold junk as AAA. The Fed has subsidized these crooks for 8 years at the expense of those who were innocent of wrong doing and cheated them out of billions in interest. The Federal Government has subsidized virtually everyone from welfare to warfare by BOTH reckless spending and reckless tax cuts. Now the best we can do is blame everyone but ourselves for this debacle. I do not look for any courage, truth or intelligence from our leaders. WE THE PEOPLE will tar and feather anyone who has the courage to speak the truth and apply the painful solutions to this problem.
THE REALITY OF “BLACK SWANS”
These risks have always been there, but today perhaps to a greater degree due to higher debt levels and less political cooperation. A financial contagion can start overseas and the dominoes start falling for months, then ‘wham’, we get hammered with nary a clue. So, the ongoing likelihood of a financial “discontinuity” of some sort is what I see as the most probable “black swan” and its a constant risk all the time now.
And the elephant in the room that no body talks about is: Where does the Fed and other central banks get there money to buy up bad debts in the first place? Answer: Oh, they just create money out of thin air. The best thing that could happen is that governments declare bankruptcy, begin printing debt free money and put the private central banks out of business.