Never before in the history of my company have I received a bigger avalanche of questions and comments than I did this week during our one-hour Q&A session online! (See recording or transcript.)
I think it’s partly my own fault — because I’ve created such a stir with the stunning predictions in our recent video, and with details on the myriad of profit opportunities they can generate.
Mostly, however, it probably has nothing to do with what I’m doing; it’s because of the swirling storms that are blatantly evident to anyone who pays even the slightest attention to world news.
As you can see from some of the questions that I couldn’t get to during our online session, that’s something our readers seem to be well aware of …
Lotto P. asks: “After Sunday’s clashes in Catalonia, Spain, what do you think will be the reaction of the EU and the markets?”
The most violent government crackdown on Spanish citizens since the brutal dictatorship of Generalissimo Franco. |
Madrid’s violent crackdown of the Catalan independence referendum injured more than 800 voters.
It was interpreted as a de-facto declaration of war against the breakaway region. And it set into motion a downward spiral that has barely begun.
Next, expect a surge in already-simmering separatist movements all across Europe: The Flemish movement for independence from Belgium … the Corsican movement for separation from France … the Venetian and Lombardian movements for autonomy from Italy … the Moravian and Silesian movements in the Czech Republic … even autonomy movements in Denmark and Germany. (Just to mention a few.)
This is devastating for the euro — even more so than the EU’s loss of Great Britain, which is not part of the eurozone to begin with. It means another major decline in the currency’s value, and another big wave of European flight capital sweeping into U.S. markets.
Joseph L. asks: “How is this kind of news impacting the stocks Sean has recommended in your Supercycle Investor service?”
A lot of the flight capital — from Europe and elsewhere — is flowing into resources and resource stocks, which has been his primary focus in the early going. As a result, we’ve just seen major surges in his picks ranging from 30.5% to 94.2%.
Robert M. comments: “No word on what happens to China. When or will they have crises like Japan, Europe and U.S???!!!”
What makes China different is its massive trade surpluses and the largest hoard of currency reserves on Earth. This doesn’t mean China will escape the crisis. It has its own set of problems. Â But the primary driver of the next global debt crisis will be the massive, over-the-top debts piled up by federal governments. And among the world’s largest economies, those are worst in Japan, Europe and the United States.
Jim A. asks: “When do you anticipate the bond market to move to the downside?”
This is easily the most important question of all. My immediate answer is that bond markets have already begun to decline, although not yet in a big way.
Plus, here’s a broader answer: It’s the government bond markets of Japan, Europe and the United States that will give you the first warning signs of the coming government debt crisis.
Why? Because that’s where governments borrow the trillions they need to stay afloat. That’s where central banks have poured in trillions of dollars with their biggest bond-buying programs in history. That’s where central banks have bid up prices to the stratosphere — and shoved down yields to ridiculously low levels. And that’s where we see the single-largest speculative bubble in the world today.
George Nate asks: “Do you think we’ll have a correction by the end of 2017?”
Yes. Probably by the end of 2017 or the beginning of 2018.
Ian H. writes: “Using Elliott wave analysis, you can count that the Dow is close to completing five waves up of Supercycle degree from 1932, so why wouldn’t there be an imminent U.S. stock crash?”
How close? And how many times will we see what Elliot wave theorists call “another fifth wave extension”? Meanwhile, we also see a crash in the future, but not imminently.
Stu asks: “Where is Mike Larson hiding?”
Hiding? Ha-ha. Quite to the contrary, Mike is writing market commentary almost daily at our Weiss Ratings division (see our website, above). Go to www.weissratings.com. Then, on the right side of the screen, sign up to receive his reports.
Rakesh writes: “With demographics to increase in older people retiring and curtailing their spending here and in Europe, Harry Dent predicts depression with the market dropping 40% to 50% in the time frame you are claiming market will be going up. What is your take on demographics effect on the markets?”
Unquestionably, the aging of populations in industrial nations has far-reaching economic consequences.
But the first place we see the impact is not in the spending habits of consumers or the level of the Dow …
Among all countries, whether large or small, advanced or underdeveloped, Japan has, by far, the largest percentage of elderly. |
It’s in the borrowing habits of governments, which face insurmountable deficits in pension and health programs.
And nowhere is that problem more extreme than in Japan, where the government now owes $2.50 for every $1 of GDP, far more than Greece or the United States.
Carole D. has this question: “You are focusing on stocks that have risen and are expensive. Are you going to recommend stocks that are promising and are low in price so I can make the profits that you have made?”
Yes. It is not difficult to avoid overpriced stocks: Find those that are undiscovered or under-covered by Wall Street. Wait for a correction. Or both.
Paul writes: “Japan has been doing very well recently under its present debt. Why do you think it will suddenly have a recession? Could it not carry on like this for years?”
We do not foresee a recession hitting Japan so suddenly. We believe their crisis will begin first in the Japanese government bond markets.
Susan G. has this comment: “This week the House of Representatives will vote on a budget bill. The proposal is to slash federal benefits by at least $32 billion over the next decade. Do you believe that people’s pensions and Social Security awards will be reduced or eliminated altogether?”
The trigger event that will force the government’s hands to make major cutbacks in federal benefits will not come from Congress or the president. Nor will it be the result of an election.
Instead, it will come from major holders of U.S. government securities — fed up with the miserably low yields they’re getting … fearful of an inflationary surge … deeply concerned about the government’s massive debt load … and terrified by the impact any major war could have on all of the above.
It’s highly unlikely Social Security checks will be eliminated entirely. But other dire scenarios, starting with a reduction of their purchasing power, are very possible.
“Where do you see the precious metals by year end?” queries a subscriber by the name of Larry.
Our cycle analysis indicates a good chance of a moderate correction that could continue into early December, and then a major rise to new 12-month highs.
Jere R. asks: “What do you invest in after the USA goes belly-up?”
Perhaps you’ve misunderstood or we’ve not been clear enough in our communication. We are not predicting that the nation as a whole will go bankrupt. Rather, what we see ahead is a very serious crisis in government debt and government bond markets. The crisis will start overseas and then spread to the United States.
By 2020, Washington will reach a critical fork in the road: The government will either find some way of effectively defaulting on its bonds (a de-facto bankruptcy) … or it will find a way to renege on many of its other obligations, such as Social Security, Medicare and Veterans’ benefits (also a de-facto bankruptcy). What to invest in is best determined when that time comes.
Charles D.’s question is similar: “When is the best time to jump back into the markets, 2020 or 2022? How bad is it going to get?”
It’s too soon to pinpoint the best entry point. The decline itself has yet to begin. And what we know today — about the cycle or how it will play out — is not nearly as valuable as what we will know then. That’s why we will continue to publish our analysis and recommendations. And it’s why you need to stay in touch. It’s also too soon to say how bad it will truly be. Let’s pray for the best and be prepared for the worst.
Wayne K. asks: “When the ‘crash’ occurs and the government tries to confiscate cash in money markets or bank accounts, how do you access your funds?”
Right now, our Weiss Ratings indicate that, despite some notable exceptions, most of America’s banks are quite a bit stronger financially than they were eight years ago. Meanwhile, although almost anything is possible in the midst of a major breakdown of government financing, confiscation of your money in bank accounts is definitely not a current concern. If that risk rises in the future, we will let you know and give you more specific recommendations for protecting your money.
While watching our broadcast, Tom wrote in, saying: “My volume is all the way up and I can hardly hear you.”
We apologize for any technical issues you may have experienced during our Q&A session. To review the recording, click here. For the transcript, go here.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
{ 20 comments }
Thanks for the advice and truth.
Will changes to Tax laws, cutting taxes for consumers and businesses delay the Recession / depression in USA?
As new subscriber, what is your recommended entry point for Katanga
I have asked this question at least 3 times over the last 6 months and have not received a response. I would appreciate the courtesy of a reply –
Larry Edelson issued a glowing report on IBM a while back. Do the expectations of the report still apply?
Martin, Thank you for clarifying certain points about the future. I believe our biggest worry, other than outright physical war, is the aging population and what becomes of them if social security benefits and services are greatly reduced. Where do they go from there?
I think you guys are blowing this way far away out
I understand a correction may be coming but armageddon is going way too far and panicing people is rediculous
Dr. Weiss, I have a question. Do you see any chance that eventually the USD, and perhaps other currencies, might become again backed by gold; and if so when might that be?
Before most market crashes, there seems to be a buying frenzy that sees markets go straight up and then crash. Do you see this happening again this time.
Thanks.
How can we depend on Cycles I believe they are just like flipping a coin everytime you flip a coin it can either be heads or tails randomly never knowing which one it will turn up it is possible that you could flip a coin and get let’s say 20 heads in a row but what will the 21st flip be heads or tails obviously it can be either heads or tails a 50% chance of either so that is the way with Cycles also just like flipping a coin they can go up or they can go down whenever they wish and we can’t do anything about it so how can we rely on Cycles to make our investment decisions it really seems beyond ridiculous even stupid thank you
Dr. Weiss: How can the Federal government possibly default on its obligations, fail to pay social security and medicare benefits, etc., when the Fed, one of its arms, has the unlimited power to print money and “loan” it to the Federal government (meaning itself)? Please reply to this question in your next column. Thanks.
The debt crisis, and the product of the debt crisis, namely a default in government bonds or a default in government promises, or BOTH (which is possible) is a short-term development and pressure relief, but it is NOT a solution. Why? Because it does not SOLVE the original problem of government deficits: not living within our means. When we abandoned redeemable money for fiat, on-demand “dollars” which could be printed and/or loaned into existence, there was no apparent need for fiscal restraint. Once the politicians figured this out, we lost control of our country. The fact is, one day, perhaps soon, the country will have to cut its spending by 50% and live on what the country will bear in tax contribution. What the 50% of those on some version of the dole will do going forward and how they will react without Federal inputs on their behalf is not a pretty picture to envision. THAT is what will cause the country potentially to unravel. We bought ourselves 40 years with this game, but it cannot continue much longer. It is an amazing pass to which we have come. Best always. PM
Back of today’s FT the chief executive says that the beverages industry is staving off a decline with emerging market acquisitions. Apparently we are in one of four cycles, the kondratieff wave, kitchin cycle, Kuznets cycle, and jugular cycle. We are most likely to be in the jugular cycle of 7 to 11 years, which is concerned with fixed short term investments. Beware of the fisher effect though the nominal rate of interests effect on the rate of real inflation. Also be conscious of the Phillips curve, which is the rate of unemployment relationship with the rate of inflation. We are in for a boom in this prosperity, recession, improvements economic cycle that we are in. We are also in a boom, recession, depression, recovery and growth cycle. The growth is coming in the solow steady state residual. Its a constant steady state golden level of income. Enjoy the boom that don’t last forever unfortunately.
As a long time Real Wealth report member Larry always included the cycle predictions in the monthly report on gold/silver, oil, the dollar etc. The new service is a trading service based on the cycles and Larry did not intend the Real Wealth report not to show the cycles. If we wish to trade on the cycles than we will join the new service, but the cycles should still be shown in the Real Wealth report. Please let me know.
Tom
Puerto Rico default is not mentioned – a basket case. Who is holding this debt?
I am an Aussie that predominantly invest in Australian metals ie: lithium , rare earths ,gold / silver and have done very well over the past two years.
Is the Australian market going to follow the US or will it take a different course.
I am intrigued by your service but I am still confused and not convinced how your service can deliver the incredible gains promised.
1-You mentioned many stages to unfold but you don’t provide any timing.
2-You mentioned that gold and silver will provide explosive returns and at the same time say that they are still dropping. I am still not clear what investments you are recommending right now. Anyone can say “…such and such investment will be great in the future….” but it doesn’t set you apart from what other services are saying.
Regards,
SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS IS LOCAL
Consulting Economist, Martin A. Armstrong maintains the ongoing Sovereign Debt Crisis is going to start at the state level, specifically with so many underfunded public employee pensions like CALPERS and many others. Most public pensions can not stay solvent unless interest rates “normalize” or double from here. Otherwise, many will go bankrupt and take their attached municipalities and their public workers ( police and fire) right down the tubes with them. Its where the action is going to be for the future as much as sovereign state debt at the Federal level.
Insurance stocks took a hit after the last round of hurricanes, but as you know they were virtually assured of recovery. When do you expect them to hit a low point after payouts for the recent series of disasters and their subsequent recovery time period?
The best data I have seen indicates that the inflation which has NOT been reported, or has been fudged by shifting the statistical and reporting goalposts, has cut spending power by about 60% since 1990.
This is obviously a key strategy for over-indebted governments everywhere, it is the subtlest way of welching on their promises and – seen objectively – the least catastrophic way.
Martin, how much longer do you think they can get away with this?
Our liberal Canadian government gone mad, now they are proposing to tax the people on
retail store discounts etc. they claim too many tax evaders, they also propose higher taxes
for the small businesses (farmers,physicians,ma & pop stores etc. But since the PM and his
Finance Minister have huge trust funds they will not touch those! Real hippocrates